Thursday, July 23, 2009

When you think about it a little...

Hillary Clinton's statement that hints at the US resigned to a fact of a nuclear armed Iran caused quite a stir. Clinton also asserted that America will „extend a defence umbrella over the region“ in such an event. Isreal, who conseders a nuclaer Iran an existential threat, reacted sharply to these latest statements.

When you think about it a bit, however, this should not be so shocking. While I admit that this line of thinking escaped me in the past, as it did many professional analysts, it nevertheless has a sound logic of self-interest within. A nuclear armed Iran is not that detrimental to US interests after all. You see, Isreal is not the only one in the Middle East fearful of Iranian newly-acquired power. Equally as fearful, if not more,(thought they do not say it in public) are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and almost all Sunni states in the Arabian peninsula. Since neither of those countries, or Israel, are capable of producing the means for the „defence umbrella“ Clinton is talking about, they will have to buy them from someone. And they can only buy them from the USA or Russia. By making these assertions, Hillary Clinton wants to ensure that it is the USA that profits from the new arms race in the Middle East that is certain to come if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon. This will reboot the American military industrial complex which has suffered badly under the economic crisis(as the recent cancellation of the F22 shows).

War against Iran, which never looked like a likely option, in spite of all that was written in tha past years, is off the table, it would seem, since, among other reasons, the US have neither the will or the means to wage it. Subversion of the Iranian system from the inside has little chance of success, regardless of the present events in Iran(which have all but disappeared from the headlines). America was left only with the option of containment and decided to use it to the fullest(though thinking about it now, I believe that was the plan all along).

What remains to be seen is how will this apparent shift influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Will Americans pursue a solution, any kind of solution in order to curtial Iranian influence? Will it blackmail Isreal with military aid? How will the US react to a possible Israeli attempt to solve the Iranian nukes issue their own way? Or will they have the Saudis get rid of Iranian agents among the Palestinians one way or the other? And did we recently get an indication of how will it all go?

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Our "antiamericanism"

Gallup has recently published an opinion poll(sorry, coudn't find a link for the life of me) according to which Serbia is second only to Pakistan when it comes to the number of people with negative feelings towards the USA. Considering what has happened it is hardly a surprise, though one would never have guessed it judging by the results of recent elections. Never underestimate the inconsistency of the average voter!

Belgrade daily "Politika" made a botched attempt at explaining this phenomenon through a parellel interview with an American ex-pat living in Serbia and political analyst Branko Radun. Radun made an attempt at explaining the evolution of the average Serb's attitude towards America from largely positive until the 1990-ties to animosity and bitterness in the latter years while emphasizing that anti-US feelings largely stopped at criticism of American policy and never boiled over into nastiness towards ordinary Americans as such, an assertion that was affirmed by the American interviewee based on his experiances. Radun also explained that general negativity by Serbs towards America is not just poison fruit of the actions of the American governement but also that of it's media and part of the cultural elite.

Still, Radun does not attempt to answer the question how the whole thing came to be. Why did the US decide on a hostile policy towards the Serbs in spite of them never having been enemies of America as a country nor having been hostile as a population?

In the root of it all is the transformation of America from a nation-state with distinct culture, customs and tradition into a multi-culti mixture of just about anything and a paradigm of the globalist and transnational-progressivist ideology that was to be spread by any means necessary, including the sword. It is a vision straight out of Trotsky's playbook, an equivalent of his theory of "permanent world revolution" with the old USSR as it's spiritus movens. We were simply victims of this expansionist project because we could not accept effectively renouncing what we are.

Sadly, very few people understood the change USA underwent. While that is understandable when it comes to the average Jovan, it is an unforgiveable omission on the part of our political elites. As a result, their view of America is quite superficial. Patriotic movements often tend to look upon the US as a malevolent monlith, concieved as such and having reached it's natural stadium of growth, a grinding force driven by one goal only, conquest and assimilation, and is beyond reasoning or redemption(*). Civilizational values America created and upheld throughout historyt which were until recently considered undisputable were subject to relativism and even denied right up to the point where it became acceptable honouring some of the most retrograde and totalitarian movements and ideologies in the world(Hamas, Hezbollah) just because they are in a state of confrontation with America for one reason or another. This is the closest it gets to the "antiamericanism" that can be seen in Pakistan and other Moslem countries. Nevertheless, such attitudes drive Serbia away from the civilizational circle it belongs to even though America and it's allies decided to reliquish it.

What about those others, the non-patriotic part? They can de divided into two categories. The first consists of proud followers of the ideology of the American progressivist establishment, people who do not hide that their loyalties lie in the "international community". Everything has been said already about how much they despise the Serb people and it's culture and tradition. The second category are the "useful idiots", those who pay lip-service to Serbian traditions and still see America in the context of "fight against communism" and which complement the former category by giving them the cloak of acceptability. Trapped in their mythical world, they are unable to accept that their "beacon of liberty" is simply in the wrong and forcefully look for faults in their own country and people. Both not only actively work in undermining the interest os Serb people but are also, considering the character of the ideology they serve, an existential threat.

How do we get out of this situation? First of all by seeing America as a whole, it's good and bad sides and recognizing the negative change it has been going through and is still going through. That way, not only will we see that presently we are going through a process they already passed, we will also be able to predict what awaits us in the future. Another good aspect of that course of action is the separation of the traditional America and the present one. Who knows, we might just manage to educate one of the "useful idiots"(whereas domestic transnational progressivists should be curtailed whenever, wherever). The knee-jerk, pavlovian "antiamericanism" which declares anybody who burns an Americam flag for any reason a comrade-in-arms isn't going to bring us any good.

(*)footnote: This is a paraphrase of an actual quote from one of Star Trek series about the Borg. Not that I think that transnational progressivists are dissimillar to them, quite the opposite.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

So the sun does not shine brighter after all

The news of the European comission recommending the abolition of entry visas for Serbian citizens did not create the effect in the public that EU enthusiasts in Serbia desired. The only ones gushing over this are governement officials and their sycophantic media. It is by no means topic of conversation by ordinary people, in fact you would struggle to find a passing reference to it. It seems it has finally dawned on the population that their standards are so low they could barely afford a trip across town, let alone abroad. Until that gets better this is the governement's way of telling them to eat cake if they lack in bread.

But for Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija there is not even this cake. By accepting the visa measure being valid only for those living outside of Kosovo and Metohija the governement has formally made them second-class citizens. And that's not the worst part. In order to have the decision formally accepted by the Council of Ministers Serbia would have to "control the borderline between Serbia and Kosovo in cooperation with EULEX and Kosovo police", which makes governement proclamation of "never recognizing Kosovo" ring hollow.

Still, the general indifference of the Serbian public to this event gives hope that something is changing for the better. All that is needed now is that the "fine print" concerning Kosovo and Metohija and the fact that the final decision on visas will only be made in November or December gets widely publicized and we may see the end of the scourge that rules Serbia now. The question is whether there are people capable of doing it.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Sign of the coming times?

The visit od the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas to Serbia passed somewhat unnoticed by analysts in Serbia and elsewhere. This visit is unusual for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, it came somewhat out of the blue. In the previous years Serbian governements payed very little attention to the Middle East, the highest contact with interested parties over there having been on the ministerial level and no more. Now, Abbas comes to visit for no less then two full days, longer then US Vice-president Biden, for example. The governement went as far as proposing him the sponsorship of Palestinian students for them to study in Serbia's state-funded universities(while at the same time Serbian students are getting slapped with outrageously high tuition fees).

The second reason has a lot to do with the character of Boris Tadić and his regime. They do nothing on their own and even less according to their personal convictions(in the unlikely event that they have any to begin with). As much as such people are contemptible, there is a certain usefullness in them because you can deduce by their behaviour which way the wind is blowing. This cozying with Abbas was done under orders. From whom? Well, I don't think you need many guesses to figure out.

I'm not saying it is certain to happen, but do not be suprised if you see major events coming the way of Israel real soon.