Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Not that it matters who really won

The uproar over the Iranian elections is, in effect, a storm in a teacup. Why? Because the real power is concentrated within the clique of Shi'a ayatollahs headed by the Grand Ayatollah Rafsanjani. It is they who ultimately decide which candidates are eligible in the first place. Make no mistake, if a candidate posed as much as a whim of a threat to them he'd have been cast out. So, whether Ahemdinejad or Mousavi have actually won, very little is going to change, and whatever change becomes it will be in form not in substance. Kind of like the elections in the two-party systems in western countries of today...

There is but one cause for concern, as Gray Falcon explains it:

You see, it looks very much like a "color revolution" scenario: the US-favored candidate contests election results, claims victory, and his supporters riot till the government caves in. But then, couldn't the incumbent actually steal the election knowing full well that he can paint the resulting opposition protests as a CIA/NED coup attempt, whether that is actually true or not?
...
The fact remains, however, that the technique of "democratic coup" pioneered by the Empire in Serbia - and applied elsewhere since - has made it effectively impossible to judge whether any election, anywhere, is actually legitimate.


In any case, the reports of the death of the Islamic Republic are greatly exaggerated.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Call their bluff

French mind games concerning the upcoming FIFA World Cup qualifier against Serbia in Belgrade in September have already started. Allegedly spurred by the jeering of the Austrian anthem by the Serbian crowd last Saturday, they threaten to abandon the pitch if the same thing happens to the Marselliaise. The heads of the Serbian FA, emulating similar behaviour of the governement, rushed to "educate" the fans in sporting culture(which our fans do lack, but not in the sense it is suggested).

Well, I say, let them go! FIFA rules explicitly forbid the abandonment of games without the accord of the officials and even they can allow it only under clear circumstances. Why are we under any obbligation to accomodate the French? If they leave we win by forfeit, but that would not be the real benefit of calling the French bluff. It would put a stop to any further similar attempts to obtain special conditions, ones they would not dream of asking from anybody else. If we kow-tow to French demands, the next thing would be someone asking that we cancel any kind of support from the stands altogether.

As for what the empty shell that is the France of today deserves, that is another story...

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

So, who cares about the EU elections?

Not the citizens of EU countries, that's for sure. The turnout is just over 30% meaning that the only ones who voted were party activists and their family members.(A similar percentage voted in the extraordinary local elections in two municipalities in Belgrade last weekend, but I digress...)

The reasons for this are several. First, the people are generally speaking sick of political parties, especially the major ones. On the other hand, they still do not have faith in the new upcoming ones, for various reasons that include fear of the unknown as well as a knee-jerk reaction to the demonization some of them. Secondly, it is by now clear that the European parliament has no real authority and that the power resides in the unelected European comission and the national governements and parliaments. While the latter are formally elected bodies, the election rules in most EU contries are set in such a mode that the two-party political monopoly is all but impossible to break and the feeling from national elections that nothing really changes transfers on to the European ones.

Still, these elections did give a chance for some form of a protest vote. UK for Independence Party came in second in it's country and the British National Party will have representatives in the European parlaiment for the first time. Elsewhere, in Holland, Geert Wilders' Freedom party also made big gains. These results will give some better media exposure to the newcomers and if they are smart enough to use it appropriately it could result in something much bigger then these measly elections.

But as ancient Spartans once remarked to Phillip of Macedonia:"If..."