Thursday, July 23, 2009

When you think about it a little...

Hillary Clinton's statement that hints at the US resigned to a fact of a nuclear armed Iran caused quite a stir. Clinton also asserted that America will „extend a defence umbrella over the region“ in such an event. Isreal, who conseders a nuclaer Iran an existential threat, reacted sharply to these latest statements.

When you think about it a bit, however, this should not be so shocking. While I admit that this line of thinking escaped me in the past, as it did many professional analysts, it nevertheless has a sound logic of self-interest within. A nuclear armed Iran is not that detrimental to US interests after all. You see, Isreal is not the only one in the Middle East fearful of Iranian newly-acquired power. Equally as fearful, if not more,(thought they do not say it in public) are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and almost all Sunni states in the Arabian peninsula. Since neither of those countries, or Israel, are capable of producing the means for the „defence umbrella“ Clinton is talking about, they will have to buy them from someone. And they can only buy them from the USA or Russia. By making these assertions, Hillary Clinton wants to ensure that it is the USA that profits from the new arms race in the Middle East that is certain to come if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon. This will reboot the American military industrial complex which has suffered badly under the economic crisis(as the recent cancellation of the F22 shows).

War against Iran, which never looked like a likely option, in spite of all that was written in tha past years, is off the table, it would seem, since, among other reasons, the US have neither the will or the means to wage it. Subversion of the Iranian system from the inside has little chance of success, regardless of the present events in Iran(which have all but disappeared from the headlines). America was left only with the option of containment and decided to use it to the fullest(though thinking about it now, I believe that was the plan all along).

What remains to be seen is how will this apparent shift influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Will Americans pursue a solution, any kind of solution in order to curtial Iranian influence? Will it blackmail Isreal with military aid? How will the US react to a possible Israeli attempt to solve the Iranian nukes issue their own way? Or will they have the Saudis get rid of Iranian agents among the Palestinians one way or the other? And did we recently get an indication of how will it all go?

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