Wednesday, August 27, 2008

How does this bode for us?

Te dice is rolled, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It's a step that sober analysts were expecting, but which nevertheless happened a bit unexpectedly soon. On the other hand, western officials were caught unprepared yet again. Still smarting form the heavy defeat their paawn Saakashvili suffered, they were served another shock. Unable to think of an apropriate reply they started to clutch at phrases of territorial integrity, soveregnity, international law and the need to respect the UN Resolutions. Grotesque beyond all comment. Even western journalists have trouble keeping a straight face when they report this new-found love for internationa law in the US and EU. Where has the "special case" doctrine gone?

So, how does this bode for Serbia's postiton vis-a-vis Kosovo and Metohija? At first glance it appears that it's position is made more difficult sinc Russia has basically руго,ово може да помогне нашој иforfeit the international law card it's been playing at the west with it's latest move. Still, things are not so simple. One can benefit, and handily, even from such a situation.

First and foremost we have to piont out wherever, whenever that this situation is a consequence of western behaviour in Kosovo and Metohija and that Serbia constantly warned as early as last year that the illegal recognition of Kosovo and Metohija would re-ignite frozen conflicts all around the world. At the same time, even though Serbs can understand Russia's motives, the governement of Serbia should abstain from recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Second, this could help our initiative in the UN that the International Court of Justice gives it's opinion on the legality of western recognition of Kosovo and Metohija. Small countries around the world are watching with anxiety as the international order built way back from the peace of Westphalia in 1648 falls apart before the eyes of the world. None wants to engage in a feverish arms race to provide basic security for themselves. That is why many could support Serbia's initiative and thus restore the world back to order, as much as it is possible after all that has transpired.

The question is whether we have men capable, or rather, willing to do so? I'm a bit sceptical on that.

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